Probabilistic thunderstorm forecasting by blending multiple ensembles
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating. Statistical approaches to wind forecasting offer two particular challenges: the distribution of wind speeds is highly skewed, and wind observations are reported to the nearest whole knot...
متن کاملProbabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical as interest grows in wind as a clean and renewable source of energy, in addition to a wide range of other uses, from aviation to recreational boating. Unlike other common forecasting problems, which deal with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate distributions. The prevail...
متن کاملWind Power Forecasting Using Ensembles
Short-term prediction of wind energy is by now an established field of wind power technology. For the last 15 years, our groups have worked in the field and developed short-term prediction models being used operatively at the major Danish utilities since 1996. The next step in the development of the models is to use ensemble forecasts. The ensembles are produced routinely at US NCEP (National C...
متن کاملEnsembles for Time Series Forecasting
This paper describes a new type of ensembles that aims at improving the predictive performance of these approaches in time series forecasting. Ensembles are recognised as one of the most successful approaches to prediction tasks. Previous theoretical studies of ensembles have shown that one of the key reasons for this performance is diversity among ensemble members. Several methods exist to gen...
متن کاملBlending Multiple Polygonal Shapes
Shape blending has several applications in computer graphics. In this paper, we present a new method for smoothly blending among multiple polygonal shapes. The blended shape is computed as a weighted average of the input shapes. The weight of each input shape is allowed to vary across the shape. This feature increases the flexibility for controlling the local appearance of the blended shapes. O...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
سال: 2020
ISSN: 1600-0870
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1696142